Over 1 Million Metric Tons of Palay Lost: The Devastating Impact of El Niño and Typhoons on Philippine Agriculture

The Scope of Production Losses Since the beginning of the year, the local rice industry has suffered approximately 1.024 million MT in palay losses. This figure is alarming as it already eclipses the typical annual losses of 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT that the country usually endures. Severe Tropical Storm Kristine has been particularly destructive, accounting for nearly half of the total losses, with a staggering 516,438 MT attributed solely to her wrath. Prior to this storm, the DA had already documented 507,564.39 MT in losses due to El Niño and other weather disturbances. Implications for Rice Supply and Prices The losses in palay production could translate to around 670,000 MT of milled rice, based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s average milling rate of 65.4 percent. This decline in production raises concerns about the availability of rice in the market. However, DA Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa has assured the public that rice stocks will remain sufficient and prices stable due to ongoing imports. As of October 30, the country has imported 3.79 million MT of rice, surpassing last year's imports of 3.606 million MT. Retail prices for imported rice in Metro Manila range from P42 to P55 per kilo, while locally produced commercial rice is available between P40 and P54 per kilo. The Future of Philippine Agriculture The DA has revised its palay production forecast, now estimating a four-year low of 19.41 million MT due to the extreme weather conditions. This estimate is nearly a million MT lower than previous projections and reflects a significant 6.68 percent decrease from initial expectations for the year. With the projected output being 3.24 percent lower than last year’s record-high harvest, the future of rice production in the Philippines appears precarious.